Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.377311 2.523158 2.682737 2.872255 3.093924 3.348673 3.669391
2025-08-24 2.211608 2.391145 2.596300 2.852840 3.172593 3.569748 4.122483
2025-08-31 2.100779 2.299832 2.534186 2.838336 3.236229 3.762803 4.564685
2025-09-07 2.032717 2.248888 2.510009 2.860286 3.339643 4.015134 5.149275
2025-09-14 1.923392 2.138517 2.401566 2.760169 3.262198 3.993491 5.291428
2025-09-21 1.867343 2.089682 2.365956 2.750827 3.306748 4.155880 5.796553
2025-09-28 1.801213 2.024026 2.303772 2.699042 3.282110 4.202693 6.098318
2025-10-05 1.785383 2.020821 2.321873 2.758260 3.427563 4.554475 7.212495
2025-10-12 1.780451 2.030706 2.357014 2.843450 3.623434 5.043835 9.109843
2025-10-19 1.742456 1.995067 2.327744 2.830969 3.657404 5.231204 10.356273
2025-10-26 1.713486 1.969960 2.311339 2.835962 3.720724 5.495392 12.367726
2025-11-02 1.666758 1.919251 2.256711 2.778510 3.667807 5.489911 13.136704
2025-11-09 1.631582 1.884309 2.224703 2.757249 3.683490 5.663387 15.632592
2025-11-16 1.600115 1.853139 2.196446 2.739629 3.703338 5.854120 19.454201
2025-11-23 1.572152 1.825691 2.172163 2.726462 3.729687 6.071855 26.337588
2025-11-30 1.555777 1.813400 2.168945 2.746634 3.822412 6.510493 61.167058
2025-12-07 1.508815 1.757462 2.099996 2.654951 3.682893 6.218126 46.869331
2025-12-14 1.487404 1.736482 2.081702 2.646425 3.711494 6.458612 194.717974
2025-12-21 1.456324 1.701234 2.041231 2.598857 3.655720 6.416053 NaN
2025-12-28 1.454403 1.706588 2.060903 2.653326 3.818699 7.182822 NaN
2026-01-04 1.458260 1.720057 2.093099 2.731464 4.046987 8.416132 NaN
2026-01-11 1.439614 1.700931 2.075004 2.720058 4.070575 8.797122 NaN
2026-01-18 1.425684 1.688176 2.066189 2.724650 4.132782 9.442646 NaN